In a leaked internal memo last year, Apple hardware chief John Turners described the current iPhone product roadmap as “the most ambitious ever”. This week’s revelations have finally given the outside world a glimpse into what Apple’s “ambition” looks like. According to two well-known technology sources, technology analyst Ming Kuo and veteran technology journalist Wayne Ma, this week, Apple will enter a state of “releasing new phones twice a year” from iPhone 18. As for the iPhone 17 series, which will be released in September this year, it has already been “spoiled”: including the basic iPhone 17, iPhone 17 Pro and Pro Max, as well as the new ultra-thin iPhone 17 Air. The main upgrade points include the “full range of high-swipe screen”, and the shape of the camera bulge behind the change. (iPhone 17 series model leaked picture, source: tom’s guide) This week’s latest news has made investors aware of the product updates they can expect in the next few years. According to the revelations, Apple’s entry-level models will also enter the state of annual updates. After the iPhone 16e released in February this year, the iPhone 17e will be launched early next year. After the 2026 autumn conference, four models will be released, among which the iPhone 18 Air is the same size as the 17 Air. The “Dynamic Island” design of the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max may be changed to a “pill hole” in the corner. Of course, the most attention should be Apple’s first folding screen phone iPhone 18 Fold. It is worth noting that the iPhone 18 will not be released until the beginning of 2027, together with the iPhone 18e, which means that the release node of the basic model is beginning to become the first half of the year. So there will be a total of 6 new iPhone in 2027. Of the four new models in the second half of 27, iPhone 19 Air will have a larger screen. The camera opening of the Pro model may be completely eliminated, and iPhone 19 Fold will be the second generation of folding screen models. In recent years, sales have been basically stagnant as iPhone product iterations have fallen into a lack of impact. Although Apple still sells hundreds of millions of phones every year, the lack of growth is always a risk hanging over Apple shareholders. Mr. Kuo said Apple’s shift to a twice-a-year iPhone strategy was mainly influenced by the fierce competition in the Chinese market. Chinese competitors usually release new phones in the first half of the year, and if Apple also launches new iPhone, it will narrow the marketing window. In addition, as competition intensifies, Apple will need to provide more products such as ultra-thin new phones and folding screen phones. If they are all released in September, marketing resources will be scattered. Shipments in the past few years also show that the proportion of shipments of the Pro series has continued to increase after the launch, which has squeezed the affordable models. For Apple, changing the release roadmap is only part of the narrative. To significantly boost replacement demand, Apple also needs to come up with eye-catching software and AI updates. Investors will hear more about this at next month’s WWDC.
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